This is not my typical blogpost. All I'm going to do here is explain how the sciene of Civics that is disastrously undertaught in our schools disagrees with the braindead consensus among most Americans that the Republican Primaries are over and Romney is the inevitable nominee. Romney COULD very well win the nomination, I'm not in fact making a prediction that he won't. I'm simply sick to death of being treated like Galileo when he said the Earth was not the center of the universe when I point out - accurately - that this outcome is NOT set in stone. It is true that no candidate other than Romney, statistically, can secure the 1,144 national convention delegates to win the nomination. However, the still very possible alternative is a split convention in which no candidate has secured that number of delegates, seeing as that number is 50%+1 and there are 4 candidates who have delegates (not counting Jon Huntsman, who has 2).
WHERE DO CONVENTION DELEGATES REALLY COME FROM?
The media delegate estimates that have many people convinced the split convention can't happen are simply not worth the energy put into publicizing them. Why? Because they are just that - estimates; and estimates based on very approximate arithmetic performed on very close popular vote tallies. Every State has a slightly different delegate allocation system, but in most States the popular vote in the primary of any party isn't much more than a guideline that the party's conventions are supposed to follow. Further, most State parties have multi-level conventions, starting with either Congressional district or county conventions, and leading up to the State convention. Each higher level convention is made up of delegates from lower level conventions, and these delegates elect the delegates to the next level convention. For example, the delegates from each District convention vote in the State convention, and elect delegates to the National Convention. The ground level conventions in most States operate similarly to Caucuses with varying rules for participation, but registrants with that party can participate just about everywhere. As this election has demonstrated, Caucuses are far more about turnout and participation than any candidate's actual popularity in a location. It is common for the conventions at each level to give certain officials (Party Chairs, for example) automatic delegate status to the next level, sometimes called "superdelegates". It is also common for conventions at each level to vote for delegate SLATES as opposed to individual delegates, making most conventions in a sense winner-take-all for a slate. Theoretically, the slates are supposed to either be winner-take-all for whoever got the most popular votes or proportional to the popular vote in that district county, State, etc. - but as we are about to see, this is not really happening in very many places.
If you're gasping at this point about how confusing and complicated this system is, I would like to point out that your frustration does NOT make this system irrelevant. On the contrary, YOU are choosing political irrelevance by not taking the time to understand it, much like the confusing and complicated nature of physics did not make the idiotic Biblical theories that Galileo debunked any more reflective of reality.
OK, SO?
Well, the conventions at various levels in most States have not actually happened yet, and where they have been held - the results have turned out drastically different from the media's predictions. The most important factor in this has been my personal candidate of choice - Ron Paul. Even Ron Paul's most bitter critics have commended the efficiency of his campaign machine and the resolve and dedication of his supporters. While Romney pretends to have already won the nomination with his pet media in tow, the Ron Paul campaign has been documented using a variety of strategies to gobble up delegates using the above system in a variety of States. In the last 2 days we've learned that Ron Paul has actually secured delegate majorities in Minnesota and Iowa, despite not having won either State by popular vote. How?
1. Participation: It is completely irrelevant who won the popular vote in a county or district if that locale's convention is open to participation by non-officials. These conventions are used to being formalities where a small number of people meet and vote in a pre-determined delegate slate, but very few have rules REQUIRING them to do this - in fact in most places the rules require allowing the participation of others who show up. Ron Paul's campaign has been documented in State after State to be flooding these conventions and electing full slates of Ron Paul's delegates to higher level conventions - literally shutting out the delegates of other candidates. This is because Ron Paul has organizers working for him (organizers who share a profession with our current President) that raid college campuses, Occupy camps, and other locations where angry voters are likely to be present and teach these people how to take over the local convention as well as register as delegates; all while the zombie supporters of other candidates are happily ignorant this system even exists.
2. Collaboration: Ron Paul has not won 1st place in the popular vote in any State according to official numbers, but he has quite a collection of impressive 2nds. Many States have had a single candidate dominate, Ron Paul get on the map by placing second, and everyone else hardly having a showing. Remembering that delegates are typically elected by slate, Ron Paul's campaign has been documented in State after State approaching the local campaigns and dismayed delegates of underdog candidates to form joint slates. In Santorum's States - they approach Romney supporters, in Romney's States - Santorum supporters. Combined with the participation element above, this is enough in many locations to shut out the winning delegate's slate, sending to the next level convention, for example, a slate of 20 Paul delegates and 5 Santorum delegates as opposed to the expected slate of 25 Romney delegates. It is important to note that although Santorum has suspended his campaign, his delegate slates remain eligible in the overwhelming majority of locations; so his status does NOT negate this strategy.
3. Scandal and Influence: To date, the Ron Paul campaign is documented as having retired 2 State Party Chairmen in this Primary season - Iowa's and Nevada's, both by exposing blatant and undeniable fraud on their part to rig the primaries in those States in Romney's favor. In both States, high-ranking officials for Ron Paul's campaign replaced the resigning chairmen. Similar scandals have occurred in at least 3 other States - New Hampshire, Maine, and Missouri - but to the best of my knowledge the State Chairmen in those places have endured them. Using similar tactics, dozens of party officials at lower levels - most of them volunteers and not professionals - have been forced out of their positions, meaning that Ron Paul has effectively taken over many locales' Republican Parties. More importantly in the short term, remember that officials are superdelegates to the next level, meaning their influence helps Ron Paul directly.
One Final Bit of Evidence for Those Still in Denial: Google "anti-Paul delegate slates". Multiple States, including Arizona where State Convention rules require that all delegates go to the same candidate, have been documented as putting together specific anti-Paul delegate slates at lower levels, so as to balance out the Paul or Paul+whoever slates at the next level up. Assembling these "Protect the Platform" slates takes a lot of work and is expensive - so it is very difficult to dismiss this development; it is evidence the Republican establishment views Ron Paul as a very real threat. Even if they manage to keep him out of any specific convention using this method, he is forcing them into defensive mode and stretching their resources - this is relevant.
WHAT AM I TRYING TO SAY?
Paul's objective has never been to win the nomination by delegate majority -
that is unattainable. Paul's objective has always been to hang the national convention by
denying anyone a majority, and the early conventions that have been held so far indicate he has a very real chance of accomplishing this, as even by the media's garbage estimates Romney's majority is very thin. If Paul manages to hang the convention, he will have effectively destroyed the Republican Party. A hung convention can still nominate someone - delegates just have to be convinced to change their votes until someone attains a majority; but in the existing climate a hung convention uniting behind any candidate (even someone other than the 4 present) is as unrealistic as Ron Paul attaining that majority nomination. Should the party deteriorate in this fashion, the various factions will form new parties and yield multiple nominees to challenge the Democrats' Barack Obama, both Romney and Ron Paul are almost inevitable nominees in that scenario. I could write an entire separate post on why this in no way guarantees Obama's re-election, but that is a different topic.
Finally, I will be brutally condescending toward anyone that decides to make an argument that Ron Paul's strategy is a bad thing because it threatens the Republican Party. While I respect all individuals and their political stances, the Republican Party as a power structure can go jump off a cliff. The Republican Party gave us 8 years of Bush Jr. and Cheney, 4 years of fascist Senate scumbag Bill Frist, 2 pointless and unwinnable wars that cost 1000s of lives and mounds of debt, and the sickening tyranny of the Department of Homeland Security - ALL WITHIN JUST THE LAST 12 YEARS! That Party deserves to die, and I am not responsible for anyone having mistaken me for a member because of my bitter opposition to Barack Obama and the Democratic Party. That party deserves to die as well, and the deterioration of the Republican Party will speed that process. Fearmongering that things will be worse if the existing system is destroyed will not convince me, it will make me think you're stupid. Ditto for fearmongering that the split ensures Obama's re-election - this is A. Not the case, B. Not the end of the world, and C. More or less guaranteed by a 1v1 with Romney in any case.
